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SM Stock Market Method

Jobs Report at 8:30 Could Flip This Pre-Market Rally Fast

TL;DR

Pre-market is anything but quiet this Fourth of July eve. Jobs data drops at 8:30, defensives dominated yesterday, and gold saw a massive volume spike.

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“Pre-market is anything but quiet this Fourth of July eve. Jobs data drops at 8:30, defensives dominated yesterday, and gold saw a massive volume spike.”
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Where this fits in the Confluence Method

This lesson lives in the Stack step of the Confluence Method, where you confirm a key level, momentum and price action and structure before a setup qualifies as a trade.

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Full transcript

7 sections

0:00Happy 4th of July eve. Markets are closing early today. But there is nothing quiet about the pre-market action with Rivian Automotive surging, Robin Hood markets catching a bid and Apple adding to recent strength heading into the long weekend. The big macro event this morning is the June non-farm payrolls report dropping at 8:30. That is a high impact number that can move markets fast. So watch how the tape responds to the print. Yesterday's session showed a clear defensive rotation with healthcare up nearly 2.5%, utilities gaining over 2% and consumer staples close behind. On the flip side, technology shed almost 3% and consumer discretionary slipped as well. That kind of rotation out of growth and into defensives can suggest investors were positioning cautiously ahead of today's jobs data.

0:54Gold futures stood out in a big way, trading nearly 13 times their average volume while gaining just over 2%. That kind of extreme volume spike in a safe haven asset is worth noting. It can reflect a surge in institutional interest or hedging activity, though it does not tell us alone where gold goes next.

1:14Rivian Automotive is jumping more than 8% in pre-market trade and the automated signal on this one is flagging a breakout. Volume came in at 2.4 times the 20-day average in yesterday's session, which suggests there was real conviction behind the move, not just noise. RSI is sitting at 65, which is elevated, but not yet in overbought territory. And traders watching this name will want to see whether that momentum holds as volume normalizes.

1:45Robin Hood markets is up nearly 4% ahead of the open with the technical system generating a breakout signal though at a moderate strength reading of 75. RSI is at 67 approaching levels where some traders start watching for fading momentum and volume was only modestly above average. So the conviction behind this move is worth monitoring closely.

2:06The longerterm moving average picture still shows the 50-day below the 200 day, which is a technical headwind some chart watchers would keep in mind. Apple is adding nearly 5% in pre-market, a meaningful move for a company of this size. The automated signal here reads neutral, but the technical structure is constructive. The 50-day moving average is above the 200 day, which is generally viewed as a positive trend alignment.

2:30RSI near 60 keeps it out of overbought territory for now, giving the move a bit more room technically before resistance levels typically come into focus. KA is one of the sharper moves on the downside, falling more than 11% in pre-market with volume running about 40% above average. The RSI is right at the midpoint of 50, reflecting no clear momentum lean in either direction. That kind of neutral reading after a sharp drop can sometimes indicate uncertainty about the next direction. Despite the sell-off, the 50-day remains above the 200 day. So, longerterm trend followers will be watching whether this is a dip within an uptrend or the start of something more significant.

3:15It is a shortened session today ahead of the 4th of July holiday. So, stay disciplined. Watch that jobs number at 8:30 and we will be back with more market analysis next week. This video is for educational andformational purposes only and is not financial advice. Markets are risky. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before trading.