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SM Stock Market Method

Jobs Report at 8:30 Could Flip This Market in Either Direction

TL;DR

Jobs day is here and the tape is already moving. Ethereum sliding, UnitedHealth surging, and gold screaming caution ahead of the 8:30 payrolls print.

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“Jobs day is here and the tape is already moving. Ethereum sliding, UnitedHealth surging, and gold screaming caution ahead of the 8:30 payrolls print.”
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Where this fits in the Confluence Method

This lesson lives in the Stack step of the Confluence Method, where you confirm momentum, a key level and a trigger before a setup qualifies as a trade.

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Full transcript

6 sections

0:00Good morning and happy Friday. Ethereum is getting crushed in pre-market. United Health is surging after a rough stretch and all eyes are on meta as the week wraps up. The big event today is the 8:30 jobs report non-farm payrolls and it is rated high impact, meaning this number alone could swing the tape hard in either direction at the open.

0:23Yesterday's session saw a clear defensive and value rotation with healthcare up over 3% leading the board followed by financials at nearly 2 and a half and industrials adding over 1%. On the other side, technology dropped 1 and a.5% communication services fell over 1%. Suggesting traders were moving out of growth and into more cyclical and defensive names. When you see that kind of spread between healthcare and tech, it often signals riskoff positioning heading into a macro catalyst.

0:56Gold futures traded at nearly six times their average volume yesterday with a modest half% gain. That kind of surge in participation around a safe haven asset ahead of a job sprint is worth watching. Broadcom came in at three times average volume and dropped over 12%. Heavy volume on a sharp down day often reflects strong conviction among sellers and technically that move is significant. Marvel technology saw volume running at double its norm and actually gained nearly 5% which is an interesting divergence from the broader semiconductor pressure. Elevated volume on an upday can indicate accumulating interest.

1:36Ethereum is down over 6% in pre-market and the technical picture is about as stretched to the downside as it gets right now. The automated signal is flagging a breakdown with an RSI sitting at just under 15, which puts it deep in oversold territory. The 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200 day, a bearish structural setup that technicians often watch closely. Volume is running at 1 and a half times the 20-day average. So, there is meaningful participation behind this move. Whether that leads to further pressure or a snapback is something traders will be watching carefully. Meta is not showing a directional price change in pre-market and the automated signal is neutral with a strength reading of zero. The RSI is sitting right at 51 which is about as middle of the road as momentum gets. No clear lean in either direction from a technical standpoint. Volume is slightly elevated at 1.3 times average. So there is some interest but nothing the automated system is flagging as conviction.

2:40United Health is up over 5% in pre-market, a notable move for a stock that has been under significant pressure in recent sessions. The RSI has climbed to nearly 67, approaching but not yet in overbought territory, and the 50-day moving average remains above the 200 day, a structurally constructive alignment. Volume is running at 1.8 times the 20-day average, which adds some weight to the move, though the automated signal is still reading neutral, so confirmation is something to watch for. Coinbase Global does not have a pre-market price change to report this morning and the automated system is sitting at a neutral signal with no directional conviction flagged. The RSI at 37 suggests the stock is leaning toward the softer end of the momentum range without yet hitting oversold levels. Volume is actually slightly below average at N times the norm. So there is not a lot of activity to read into here heading into the open. Jobs numbers hit at 8:30. That is the number that sets the tone for the whole session. So stay sharp and let the data come to you.

3:47This video is for educational andformational purposes only and is not financial advice. Markets are risky. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before trading.

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